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A daily brief about the world's most dangerous places from international war correspondent Chuck Holton
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Friday Dec 21, 2018
Friday Dec 21, 2018
The US is pulling out of Syria. What does that mean for Israel? And is North Korea REALLY our friend now? And US Military recruits - too Fat to Fight? All this and more on today's Hot Zone.
[intro]
Thanks for being here. I'm Chuck Holton. So the US is leaving Syria. The sudden announcement came wednesday from the pentagon that all 2000 US troops stationed in that country are claiming victory and leaving. ISIS has reportedly been reduced to just a few hundred fighters near Afrin. I think the Trump administration saw this as a good opportunity to disengage our forces, rather than end up having them in Syria, where they cause lots of friction with Russia and Turkey and of course, the Syrian Government. But for some, this feels like an attempt to do what Obama did in 2009 when he precipitously pulled US troops out of Iraq before the war was over.
See this is how it works with wars. You can't declare victory if the enemy hasn't declared defeat. If you do, the war might stop temporarily, but it won't end. We've seen that for more than 50 years on the Korean Peninsula, which we'll talk about later.
Two things about Syria though: This is not a pullout in the same sense that our departure from Iraq was in 2009. Because we still have 6,000 troops in Iraq, and they are there for the foreseeable future. So I'll give Trump the benefit of the doubt here, but the real question is what does this mean for our best friends in the region - the Kurds and Israel.
Yesterday the Israeli government agreed to support our withdrawal, but made it clear they will continue to take a zero tolerance policy on the Iranians establishing a foothold in Syria. The Israelis have tried to stay out of the morass in Syria as much as possible, only bombing places where the Iranians were trying to set up shop, and helping wounded Syrians who come to the border with the Golan Heights.
So if the commanders on the ground in Syria are saying this is the time to leave, then I believe a good presidential administration would allow them to do so, regardless of the political ramifications. And the defense department is making clear that while we might be packing up in Syria, we're not leaving the region, and if needed, we'll be back.
The Kurds are worried, though, and I think it would be a good move for Secretary of State Pompeo or someone to go to Erbil and give assurances that we will have their back. Because it wasn’t all that long ago that the Kurds and Yezidis in that region were literally being exterminated, and they have always made it very clear how badly they need our help, as they did during the fight for Mosul two years ago:
[https://vimeo.com/194295723] 2 1/2 minutes
The Kurds ultimate goal is to have their own country, but that's something that neither the Syrians, the Turks nor the Iraqis are willing to allow. So don't expect a marked decrease in violence in that area anytime soon.
Now let's talk about Korea. Sanctions remain in place on North Korea as the US waits for concrete evidence of nuclear disarmament by the rogue state. But while we are waiting, the South Koreans are negotiating baby steps toward peace.
Some really historic things have been happening between the two Koreas, as they demolish guard posts along the Demilitarized zone, and have even started talking about opening a railway between the two countries, something that would have been absolutely unthinkable ten years ago, or even earlier this year. Check out this report I filed eight years ago from South Korea after the North bombed a south korean Island.
[https://vimeo.com/17553835] [1 min]
So while we still probably can't trust Kim Jong Un any further than we could throw him, it appears Trump's dealmaking in the region is truly paying off. But regardless of the show North Korea is making in demolishing some of it's nuclear testing sites, the likelihood of that country actually disarming completely is still somewhere between slim and none.
Okay, let's talk about the US Military. I've been reporting for some time that US military recruiting is in shambles as so few Americans are fit enough to even qualify for service. But now leaders are saying those who do get in are so undisciplined that they are having to extend basic training to teach things like respecting authority and following orders. I spoke with an expert on this recently - Retired Lieutenant General Jerry Boykin.
[Boykin Package 4:30]
friends, please don't treat your children like pets. Give them measured doses of hardship and misery as they grow up - your job as a parent is to produce character, and your boys won't develop manly character by sitting on the couch staring at a screen. Our country is desperate for more good men. Men who are courageous and disciplined and selfless. Don't leave it to the schools to train your kids. The schools might be able to make them smart, but only you can make them good. We as a society need you to be disciplined enough to discipline those under your care.
That's all for today. Thanks for being here. If you are listening to this podcast, maybe head over to youtube and check out the video version sometime. You'll get a lot more out of the show.
I'm Chuck Holton and I'll see you back here Monday on the Hot Zone.
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